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Analysing economic efficiency of farm production always faces a problem of insufficient information. This is particularly true when the analysis is performed on the reference farm where estimates are ...
This paper studies games with uncertainty where players have different awareness regarding a chance player’s moves (contingencies). An announcer, who is fully aware of the contingencies, can announc...
Uncertainty and Trade Agreements     Uncertainty  Trade Agreements       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/9/22
We explore conditions under which trade agreements can provide gains by reducing trade-policy uncertainty. Given the degree of income risk aversion, this is more likely when economies are more open, e...
Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty:Theory and Firm Evidence     Investment  Trade  Uncertainty  Policy  Agreements       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/9/22
Using a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model with sunk costs of exporting we show that: (i) investment and entry into export markets is reduced when trade policy is uncertain and (ii) credible preferent...
We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade and real income through firms’ export investments in general equilibrium. We quantify the trade policy causes and welfare effects of China’s export...
Strategic Delay in Bargaining with Two-Sided Uncertainty     Strategic Delay  price       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/9/18
The role of strategic delay is analyzed in an infinite-horizon alternating-offer model of bargaining. A buyer and seller are engaged in the trade of a single object. Both bargainers have private info...
Monetary Policy under Uncertainty     Monetary Policy  Uncertainty       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/8/4
It was a pleasure for me to attend the “Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty” conference held at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in June 1998. The eight papers and the thoughtful commentary from the co...
We analyze the demand for emissions allowances and the supply of allowances and abatement opportunities in California's 2013-2020 cap and trade market for greenhouse gases (GHG). We estimate a coin...
A Model of Homogeneous Input Demand Under Price Uncertainty     Price Uncertainty  Homogeneous       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/7/31
This paper examines the empirical validity of a model of homogeneous input demand under price uncertainty in which firms trade off expected input cost against its variability (risk) in selecting t...
his paper studies Pareto-optimal risk-sharing arrangements in a private information economy with aggregate uncertainty and ex ante heterogeneous agents. I show how to implement Pareto-optima as equili...
Uncertainty and Consumer Durables Adjustment     Uncertainty  Consumer       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/7/23
We characterize infrequent durables stock adjustment by consumers who also derive utility from non-durable consumption flows in the presence of idiosyncratic income uncertainty. The data we ana...
This paper studies the properties of the solution to the heterogeneous agents model in Den Haan et al. [2009. Computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents: incomplete markets and aggregate ...
We analyze the extent to which individuals’ choices over five employerprovided insurance coverage decisions and one 401(k) investment decision exhibit systematic patterns, as would be implied by a g...
This paper shows that, contrary to common beliefs, the real options effect of uncertainty plays no role in the longrun rate of investment. This is proven for both the standard investment model with Co...
Why Has US Policy Uncertainty Risen Since 1960?     US Policy  Uncertainty Risen  Since 1960       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/7/15
We consider two classes of explanations for the rise in policy-related economic uncertainty in the United States since 1960. The first stresses growth in government spending, taxes,and regulation. A s...

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