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Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations
aggregation correlation forecasting probabilistic projection pseudo-likelihood total fertility rate
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2014/11/26
Background: The United Nations (UN) Population Division constructs probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which pro...
Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands
Europe extrapolation Lee-Carter model Netherlands non-linear models smoking
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2014/11/25
Background: With the rapid aging of the population, mortality forecasting becomes increasingly important, especially for the insurance and pension industries. However, a wide variety of projection met...
Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
prediction markets forecasting
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2012/10/23
Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapt...
Ancient Art of Weather Forecasting（图）
Ancient Art Weather Forecasting
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2010/8/30
That night more than two dozen people in Ugtaal locality in Dund Gobi province walked over the top of Kharaatyn Mountain. The group is led by an old herder, M. Baasanjav and his son, Puntsagdorj. Herd...
Methods explained:forecasting
Methods explained forecasting
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2009/11/4
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) often makes use of forecasts in the production of its statistical outputs. The purpose of this article is to outline the contexts where forecasts are required,...
Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
functional data Lee-Carter method mortality forecasting nonparametric smoothing principal components state space
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2008/12/12
We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindon...
Forecasting sex differences in mortality in high income nations The contribution of smoking
forecast forecasting mortality sex differences smoking
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2008/12/11
To address the question of whether the sex differential in mortality will in the future rise, fall, or stay the same, this study uses the relative smoking prevalence among males and females to forecas...
Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams
Demographic Structure Variance Components GMM
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2013/10/17
Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggre...