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Failure of Calibration is Typical
orecasting systems Bayesianism
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2016/6/12
Schervish (1985b) showed that every forecasting system is noncalibrated for uncountably many data sequences that it might see. This result is strengthened here: from a topological point of view, failu...
Objective Bayesian calibration and the problem of non-convex evidence
Objective Bayesian epistemology convex sets imprecise probabilities
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2016/5/31
Jon Williamson's Objective Bayesian Epistemology relies upon a calibration norm to constrain credal probability by both quantitative and qualitative evidence. One role of the calibration norm is to en...
Climate Models,Calibration and Confirmation
confirmation calibration tuning double-counting climate science Bayesianism
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2016/5/31
We argue that concerns about double-counting -- using the same evidence both to calibrate or tune climate models and also to confirm or verify that the models are adequate --deserve more careful scrut...
Calibration
Degrees of belief probability axioms
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2009/9/8
Abner Shimony (1988) argues that degrees of belief satisfy the axioms of probability because their epistemic goal is to match estimates of objective probabilities. Because the estimates obey the axiom...