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The extra value of novel confirmation over accommodation is explained based on an analysis of the underdetermination of scientific theory building. Novel confirmation can provide information on the nu...
The aim of the article is to determine how much a hypothesis H is actually confirmed if it has successfully passed a classical significance test. Bayesians have already raised many serious objections ...
Climate Models,Calibration and Confirmation     confirmation  calibration  tuning  double-counting  climate science  Bayesianism       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2016/5/31
We argue that concerns about double-counting -- using the same evidence both to calibrate or tune climate models and also to confirm or verify that the models are adequate --deserve more careful scrut...
Challenges to Bayesian Confirmation Theory     Bayes confirmation  induction probability       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2016/5/30
While Bayesian analysis has enjoyed notable success with many particular problems of inductive inference, it is not the one true and universal logic of induction. I review why the Bayesian approach fa...
Whereas an inference (deductive as well as inductive) is usually viewed as being valid in virtue of its argument form, the present paper argues that scientific reasoning is material inference, i.e., j...
Abstract Representations and Confirmation     applications of mathematics  abstraction  confirmation       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2009/6/11
Many philosophers would concede that mathematics contributes to the abstractness of some of our most successful scientific representations. Still, it is hard to know what this abstractness really come...
Falsificationist Confirmation     Confirmation  Induction  Hypothetico-Deductivism  Content Parts        font style='font-size:12px;'> 2008/4/22
Existing accounts of hypothetico-deductive confirmation are able to circumvent the classical objections (e.g. the tacking problems), but the confirmation of conjunctions of hypotheses brings them into...
Probability, Confirmation, and the Conjunction Fallacy     confirmation  conjunction fallacy       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2008/4/22
The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt of providing a satisfactory account o...
The Logic of Confirmation and Theory Assessment     Hempel  Carnap  logic of confirmation       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2008/4/21
This paper discusses an almost sixty year old problem in the philosophy of science -- that of a logic of confirmation. We present a new analysis of Carl G. Hempel's conditions of adequacy (Hempel 1945...
On coherent sets and the transmission of confirmation     Coherence  coherentism  measures of coherence       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2008/4/15
In this paper, we identify a new and mathematically well-defined sense in which the coherence of a set of hypotheses can be truth-conducive. Our focus is not, as usually, on the probability but on the...
Can some evidence confirm a conjunction of two hypotheses more than it confirms either of the hypotheses separately? We show that it can, moreover under conditions that are the same for nine different...
In recent years, a revisionist process focused on logical positivism can be observed. One aspect of this revisionism -defended by authors like Michael Friedman, John Earman and George Reisch - is the ...
Confirmation for a Modest Realism     Consilience  Whewell  Realism       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2008/3/31
William Whewell was clearly wrong to claim that his confirmation criterion of consilience was a truth-guarantor. I argue here, however, that even when consilience gives evidence for a theory that turn...
Confirmation for a Modest Realism     Consilience, Whewell, Realism       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2011/9/8
William Whewell was clearly wrong to claim that his confirmation criterion of consilience was a truth-guarantor. I argue here, however, that even when consilience gives evidence for a theory that turn...
In recent years, a revisionist process focused on logical positivism can be observed. One aspect of this revisionism -defended by authors like Michael Friedman, John Earman and George Reisch - is the ...

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