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Uncertainty and Trade Agreements     Uncertainty  Trade Agreements       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/9/22
We explore conditions under which trade agreements can provide gains by reducing trade-policy uncertainty. Given the degree of income risk aversion, this is more likely when economies are more open, e...
Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty:Theory and Firm Evidence     Investment  Trade  Uncertainty  Policy  Agreements       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/9/22
Using a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model with sunk costs of exporting we show that: (i) investment and entry into export markets is reduced when trade policy is uncertain and (ii) credible preferent...
We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade and real income through firms’ export investments in general equilibrium. We quantify the trade policy causes and welfare effects of China’s export...
Why Has US Policy Uncertainty Risen Since 1960?     US Policy  Uncertainty Risen  Since 1960       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/7/15
We consider two classes of explanations for the rise in policy-related economic uncertainty in the United States since 1960. The first stresses growth in government spending, taxes,and regulation. A s...
Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics     Uncertainty  Investment Dynamics       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/7/15
This paper shows that with (partial) irreversibility higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks. Uncertainty increases real option values making firms more cautious w...
We analyze the extent to which individuals' choices over five employer-provided insurance coverage decisions and one 401(k) investment decision exhibit systematic patterns, as would be implied by a ge...
Uncertainty and Ambiguity:Turkey's Perception on the Rise of China     Eastern Turkistan  the rise of China  Turkey       font style='font-size:12px;'> 2015/8/19
This paper aims to analyze how China’s rise is perceived by minor powers in the world system. Taking Turkey as the case study, the paper focuses on major issue areas such as bilateral trade and busine...

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