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Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Bayesian Bayesian approach England model averaging population forecasting Wales
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2014/11/25
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe: Introduction
economic uncertainties employment Europe family dynamics fertility uncertainty unemployment
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2014/11/21
Background: Economic uncertainty has become an increasingly important factor in explanations of declining fertility and postponed family formation across Europe. Yet the micro-level evidence on this t...
Estimating Trends in the Total Fertility Rate with Uncertainty Using Imperfect Data: Examples from West Africa
Bayesian inference Demographic and Health Survey local smoother retrospective surveys United Nations variable selection weighted likelihood bootstrap
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2014/11/20
Background: Estimating the total fertility rate is challenging for many developing countries because of limited data and varying data quality. A standardized, reproducible approach to produce estimate...
The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe
education births Europe
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2014/11/20
This paper analyzes how labor market instability since the late 1980s in Europe has
mediated decisions to have a second child. In particular, I seek to determine the
dimensions of economic uncerta...
Labour market integration, occupational uncertainty, and fertility choices in Germany and the UK
crossnational comparison fertility first birth occupational integration occupational uncertainty
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2014/11/20
The aim of this paper is to investigate how occupational prospects affect first-birth decisions of men and women. Contrasting the continental conservative German welfare state with the liberal market ...
The influence of employment uncertainty on childbearing in France: A tempo or quantum effect?
birth parity event history analysis fertility gender labor market short-term employment unemployment
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2014/11/20
This paper investigates whether unemployment and insecure employment periods merely delay fertility or also impact on completed fertility in France. It analyses both the timing of first childbearing a...
Asking God about the date you will die: HIV testing as a zone of uncertainty in rural Malawi
ambivalence HIV testing Malawi
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2010/11/30
Testing for HIV is becoming more available in Africa. Global advocates of testing see it as key to AIDS prevention. However, testing is not always perceived as a good thing by people at risk. Here, we...