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Simple smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy
Smoothed seismicity Earthquake predictability Forecast optimization Area skill score
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2015/8/28
Several earthquake forecast experiments in Italy have been initiated within the European testing center of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. In preparation for these...
Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy
Italy smoothed seismicity earthquake
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2015/8/28
We present a model for estimation of the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m ≥ 4.95 in Italy. This model is a modified version of that proposed for California, USA, by Helmstetter et a...
Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-year CSEP-Italy earthquake forecasts
Probabilistic forecasting Earthquake predictability Hypothesis testing Likelihood
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2015/8/28
On August 1, 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of this CSE...
Daily earthquake forecasts during the May-June 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence (northern Italy)
Operational earthquake forecast ETAS
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2015/8/26
On May 20, 2012, at 02:03 UTC, a magnitude Ml 5.9 earthquake hit part of the Po Plain area (latitude, 44.89 ˚N; longitude, 11.23 ˚E) close to the village of Finale-Emilia in the Emilia-Romag...
Relative impact of model quality and ensemble deficiencies on the performance of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts evaluated through the Brier score
model quality ensemble deficiencies ensemble based probabilistic forecasts Brier score
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2009/11/11
The relative impact of model quality and ensemble deficiencies, on the performance of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts, is investigated from a set of idealized experiments. Data are generated ac...